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Lions of Sabi Sands
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Do not forget about PC males everyone, they are also a threat to Nhena and perhaps even the other coalitions around, given they’ve been pushing relatively east recently.
I guess it kinda depend on how close one feels is close enough. But ultimately its still to early to debate. Things can still go both ways. I am just not counting on it.
The Nwas have choosen to split to maintain control. With gore declining he may also choose to stay at home. Freeing his brothers up to stay in Mala. Even if they dont stay permanently. All it would take is a chance encounter with Nhenha to settle things for good. I doubt his sons are up for a fight yet. So wheter or not they tag along wont matter much.  (12-30-2021, 08:54 PM)Duco Ndona Wrote: I doubt his sons are up for a fight yet. So wheter or not they tag along wont matter much.At this point neither Nhena or the subadult would be up for a fight with anyone probably. But they will be running from fights together which will probably bring them closer, but I do agree that we are yet to see any real proof of them acting like an actual coalition.  (12-30-2021, 07:20 PM)WildRev Wrote:(12-30-2021, 07:02 PM)Slayerd Wrote: I didn't mean his whole territory but some isn't out of the possibility. Especially because the N'was are showing it's difficult to maintain that large a territory especially when Gore is showing weakness. They are not seen in many parts of Bboys territory. Not in majority of Londolozi and not in most of Mala Mala. They stick to single routes and don't deviate and often return very quickly south. They leave Mala Mala for a long time and return later to patrol as 2. Eventually someone is going to explore these holes, whether it's the PC males or a new coalition that come through. (12-30-2021, 09:06 PM)sik94 Wrote:Nobody is calling them a coalition. The 6 males are not even a coalition yet, they're young subs acting as nomads alongside their sisters. We're saying it's an opportunity for Nhenha to stay with them and build a foundation. Nhenha doesn't need to fight, he needs to avoid and I don't think that will be too difficult. Nhenha is an experienced male who has been a nomad himself once upon a time. He will know how to survive.(12-30-2021, 08:54 PM)Duco Ndona Wrote: I doubt his sons are up for a fight yet. So wheter or not they tag along wont matter much.At this point neither Nhena or the subadult would be up for a fight with anyone probably. But they will be running from fights together which will probably bring them closer, but I do agree that we are yet to see any real proof of them acting like an actual coalition.  (12-30-2021, 09:16 PM)Slayerd Wrote: They are not seen in many parts of Bboys territory. Not in majority of Londolozi and not in most of Mala Mala. They stick to single routes and don't deviate and often return very quickly south. They leave Mala Mala for a long time and return later to patrol as 2. Eventually someone is going to explore these holes, whether it's the PC males or a new coalition that come through. N'ws are seen in core territory of Bboys, which is alongside Sand River towards north (Rattray's Camp and MalaMala Airstrip). After patrol they obiviously return south to their prides to patrol and eat there, but after few days they again return into MalaMala.. And like that is since their invade, there is no reason for them to stay in new territory 24/7 because they still dont fully control any prides there.. N'ws dont have any problems territory wise with their new territory as N. Avocas completely retreated, and Nhenha is keeping low profile, and ofc their old territory is still under them completely. (12-30-2021, 02:04 PM)Potato Wrote:(12-30-2021, 10:08 AM)Slayerd Wrote: With his experience, he would be able to push the Plains Camp males out The last part is relative though. Not saying Nhenha with a back up would push into Nw's, but the number of coalition members is just the coalition's max strenght. Members of coalition split often and patrol separately if the area they control is getting too big, might favour different prides under their shared control, might not have a strong bond or are just inexperienced to avoid being caught in a sketchy situation without numbers on their side. Relatively recently this year Nhenha retreated from Mohawk because he did not know if Blondie is around as well. Happens all the time that coalition is not present with all its members. Now in case of Ndhenghas they are not thah green any more but it is entirely possible they could be just two of them somewhere or even one of them alone (Ubuso likely). And of it comes down to a skirmish, it is yet to be seen of Gore would keep is presence and was useful beyond being one more male binding rivals' attention (he for sure counts for roaring and non-contact warfare as long as he is around, his issue seems to be changing by recent pictures). However it is not likely any males would test them any time soon, Birminghams are not exactly known for all-in aggressive approach and Nhenha proved this year he is rather cautious than reckless as well (except perhaps against nomadic/inexpiernces males - I don't remember which one of the two Birminghams chased 3 Ndhenghas before; while the other one chased the remaining one). And other males and coalition arund them are solos or duos (5th Mantimahle with sons are perhaps still 3 but far enough for now), unless the numbers change or they catch a Ndhzhenga alone I don't see them being aggressors against them. Other males can always wonder in ofc. (12-30-2021, 09:23 PM)Tr1x24 Wrote:(12-30-2021, 09:16 PM)Slayerd Wrote: They are not seen in many parts of Bboys territory. Not in majority of Londolozi and not in most of Mala Mala. They stick to single routes and don't deviate and often return very quickly south. They leave Mala Mala for a long time and return later to patrol as 2. Eventually someone is going to explore these holes, whether it's the PC males or a new coalition that come through. Which is the exact route I'm referring to and they don't deviate. I know that they don't control a pride however that also means another coalition can explore those holes unless the N'was are willing to fully claim it. I don't mean they're not present. I'm saying they don't have a firm hold over the territory of the Bboys which other lions can explore. Just because they invaded doesn't mean they control the territory especially without prides to control which other lions can explore. Core Bboys territory isn't all of the Bboys territory. The Bboys had the largest territory in Sabi Sands even as 2. They held Londolozi, Mala Mala, Umkumbe and northern Sabi Sabi. Thats a very large territory to invade and then gain nothing but hold it.  (12-30-2021, 08:54 PM)Duco Ndona Wrote: The Nwas have choosen to split to maintain control.It is normal that the members of the coalition split on acassions, it is never permament split. Ndzengas did not split into 2 different coalitions. (12-30-2021, 08:54 PM)Duco Ndona Wrote: With gore declining he may also choose to stay at home Gore looks as good as ever. I do not see any signs of his health declining. (12-30-2021, 09:16 PM)Slayerd Wrote: They are not seen in many parts of Bboys territory. Not in majority of Londolozi and not in most of Mala MalaThey look entire former Birmingham's territory and even pushed Northern Avocas further north, taking some land from them as well. (12-30-2021, 10:04 PM)RookiePundit Wrote: The last part is relative though. Not saying Nhenha with a back up would push into Nw's, but the number of coalition members is just the coalition's max strenght. Members of coalition split often and patrol separately if the area they control is getting too big, might favour different prides under their shared control, might not have a strong bond or are just inexperienced to avoid being caught in a sketchy situation without numbers on their side.Of course we can create scenarios that Nhenha and Nkuchuma male would pick Ndzengas one by one, but it is border line to impossible scenario to happen. What is most likely to happen is that any moment Nkuchuma male with Nhenha would roar in Ndzenga's territory, it would bring attention of all of them and all of them would defend the territory. You talk about "max strenght", but the think is, that it nearly always comes to max strenght, especially if it is about defending territory and not about expanding it. It is not much relative. 4vs2 is pretty streight forvard unless we are talking about some monsters in prime like Mjejanes. It would be relative if I would say 2 healty Ndzengas on their own you beat Nkuchuma and Nhenha, but 2vs2, nor even 2vs3 is the case there. In current dynamic, that is there is no larger coalition than 2 members around, Ndzengas are nearly untouchable.
I am aware the split is not permanent, its just a relavant dynamic in their coalition right now. Thats all.
As for Gores health, his wound seems to be getting worse. Anyway. Right now the N'was have just claimed the land where they kept running into willing lionesses during their first two expeditions north. Someway or another this directly or indirectly lead to the expulsion of the BBoys. The core pride itself is however avoiding them to protect the cubs so they haven't taken over that yet. But aslong they are getting sex and occasionally fed, they wont need to push for it. Only once the available lionesses stop coming, becouse they are either pregnant or found other mates, they will likely investigate further. (Though them accidentally running in the pride remains possible) I agree its possible that other groups move in and take over the pride. But if they do, they will come into direct conflict with the N'was sooner or later. (12-30-2021, 11:18 PM)Potato Wrote:(12-30-2021, 08:54 PM)Duco Ndona Wrote: The Nwas have choosen to split to maintain control.It is normal that the members of the coalition split on acassions, it is never permament split. Ndzengas did not split into 2 different coalitions. The 5th Majingilane did not intend to split permanently from the rest but he ultimately did as he was caught alone by the 2 Mapogos. Sometimes numbers at the very momment matters if the side in disadvantage can't escape the situation. Doesn't need to be permanent, the aforementioned Mapogo vs Majingilane sonflict is a good example how tides can turn quickly. I don't think NWAs pushing into Northern Avoca territory at all besides the Mala Mala part Avocas gradually gained over Birmingham throughout this year. At the end it really just matters where they can find Kambulas that is what matters for them. In the process they get familiar with the turf and might developed their preffered paths. They only clash with Northern Avocas as they response to each other roars, unlike Birmingham(s). Gore's injury looks different on recent footage. Seemed like sunken lower than before and the shape seems bit different - the opposite of it getting absorbed back into the body. Perhaps it is nothing, but doesn't seem to be a positive change or rather Idk how it could be. Those are different things. Roaring can be viewed as a way to avoid a direct conflict, threatening the opposition and settling boundaries one way or another (can escalate into more if nobody is backing down and and advancing closer instead). If the goal is incurcion on someone else's territory or outright killing a rival, silence is often more useful to catch the other male(s) off guard. In those circumstances, in case of succesful contact, it is not always possible for the side being caught off guard to get reinforcements in time (there might be a chase across properties that could change that and sometimes the chaser become the chased ones if the numbers change in the process; but if the actual fight happens it is usually too later for not-involved memebers of any coalition to get in in time to have an impact, they might retaliate, but rarely they can save a partner - Mr T tried but the numbers were still against them anyway - but coliton members can be spread much further than that). Once the danger is known ofc the coalition with react to that, but with surprise on one side, the total number of a coalition might not matter, the distance will, including the distance kept between the side in case of a possible chase. But yes, no coalition known to us now, would try to their luck against NWAs, knowing their numbers. They would certainly capitalize on an opportnity of running into a lone Ndheznga somehow, they are just unlikely to actively look for such situation, Ndhzengas would have to do something wrong to get into such a situation. That being said, the health status of lions might change quickly with an impact of numbers game, just this year Sabi Sands lost few males and condition of some others varied a lot as well. Not wishing anything on Ndhzengas, some stability would be great and their succes would be beneficial for Sabi Sands gene pool, a lot of prides are finsihing rearing a first wave of cubs, now sub-adults wtih their current dominant males, so it is a solid timing for some shifting around (unfortunately new cubs might be casualties of this, some already were this year, even sub-adults as well). (12-31-2021, 01:11 AM)Duco Ndona Wrote: I am aware the split is not permanent, its just a relavant dynamic in their coalition right now. Thats all.Or the other way around, Tinyo missing might have triggered Ndhzengas to investigate and move north, we will never know. The special card here is the infertile Kambula, she will mate with any useable males in the area, will cause but of a pull effect and will come to oestrus even after, it is not like the coalition would ever impregnate all Kambulas and have no available mater prompting them to possibly look elsewhere as long she is around.
The Nwaswitshakas started messing with the Kambulas even before the BBoys killed the Othawa male. So thats probably not it. Though the death of Tinyo may have convinced them to actually start staking claims.
I believe that infertile lionesses are more an asset than a defect for that reason. Their constant drive to mate keeps resident males from wandering of and would be invaders at bay. In the worst case, lets say Gore dies today. That leaves the Nwaswitshakas at 3 members. If they split up, and they likely will at times, this will leave one pride defended by occasionally 1 lion. This would be a perfect moment to strike for rivals. Bringing the coalition down to two, which then have to split aswell if they dont want to leave a pride defenseless for a period. Making them more vulnerable again. So they are not a undefeatable force and their new territory may be to large for them in the long run. However there are currently no wandering nomadic coalitions around that can or are willing to challenge them. Even down to one. Even the PC males, which have the numbers, are more likely to go after DM than venture south. If they are up for a fight at all. 
From Londolozis week in Pictures - sounds like Tsalala took a beating from the Kambula subs. They'll be posting about it on Sunday
"shortly after finding three of the Ntsevu Sub-adults resting in a clearing, we heard wildebeest and impala alarm calling a few hundred meters away. Upon investigating what was causing the ruckus, we found the Tsalala Female chasing after a herd of wildebeest in the hopes of catching straggling calf. This Ntsevu Sub-adult Female didn’t quite like the presence of another lioness in the area and took it upon herself to teach her a lesson (more on this on Sunday)." "the Tsalala Female seems to be handling the solitary life pretty well. Every time she has been seen of late her belly has been full. This image was the day before a run-in with the Ntsevu Sub-adults." https://blog.londolozi.com/2021/12/31/th...tures-525/  |
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