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BODY SIZE AND MASS OF NGORONGORO CRATER LIONS
BODY SIZE AND MASS OF NGORONGORO CRATER LIONS
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BODY SIZE AND MASS OF NGORONGORO CRATER LIONS
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PETER
You may have noticed and appreciated I did not counter-posted you after your post #320 and #324 pag. 22 of the thread ON THE EDGE OF EXTINCTION - A - TIGERS (Panthera tigris). I did not to avoid appearing polemical. This time you are forcing me to do it and I may also do the same in that thread at some point although it may sound off-topic by now. Please bear in mind that I am taking action for the benefit of accuracy only and NOT to be polemical or to demonstrate this or that as I am not interested in it. Before I will proceed with my defence, I highlight that I am understanding from your statement “I see young adults and adults (a), chest girth (b), weight ©, regression equation (d) and estimates regarding weight (e). In the correct order, it says a regression equation was used to calculate the body weight from chest girth in 10 Serengeti adult males and 6 Crater adult males. The outcome was 182 kg. in the Serengeti sample and 212 kg. in the Crater sample. In the days of AVA and other forums, this was regarded as news. The reason was that adult wild male lions, depending on region, were supposed to average between 160-190 kg. roughly. After the page above was posted, negociations and debates started. They, as far as I know, were never quite concluded. As a result, politics took over. This, of course, resulted in countless wars in many forums. The intention is to prevent destruction over here and the best way to get there is to stick to the facts.” that the page of the paper concerning the 212 kg estimate became one of the major causes of AVA collapse! I would imagine a similar earthquake happened when the documents from Kerley et al. (2005) and Slaght et al. (2005) on Amur tiger weights become known in AVA at some point (I privately received those two papers in 2006 or early 2007 at most, but I believe AVA become aware of them a few years later). I have no words for it. And now as you suggest I will “return to the facts” and “Proceed by all means, but remember it would appreciated if you, when entering hypotheticals on Ngorogoro, would include other regions (like Kazirangha). There is, in fact, more on them. I will post a few measurements and weights in the tiger extinction thread shortly. Maybe the best way to continue, if I may say so, would be facts.” FACTS 1A) Kazirangha Tigers I am not aware to date of any suggestion and/or data appearing in peer-reviewed scientific publications stating Kazirangha Tigers are any heavier and/or larger then wild tigers from other Parks or Reserves in the Indian subcontinent (basically the whole Bengal tiger range) or elsewhere in Asia. I am very much looking forward for scientific data to emerge from current research enlightening the issue. To my knowledge to date conjectures and suggestions can only be based on hunting records (fair if reliable, accurate and unbiased), but any statistically sounded comparison should be done among populations living in the same era and it may not reflect the current situation. I leave any suggestion based on pictures to other people. I am not interested and it is not for me. This is “hypothetical”. Chest girth range of Ngorongoro Crater lions provided by Packer as 1270-1340 mm is a fact. 1B) Ngorongoro Crater lions You stated “I guess all of those interested in wild big cats heard about Ngorogoro lions and rumours about their alleged size. In this respect, they compare to Kazirangha tigers. Apart from rumours, both also compare in that they seem to be very suited to those interested in extra-large big cats, angles, pictures and a bit of mischief.” I do not release and discuss details of unpublished info in forums for a number of reasons, above all when it is not necessary. It is just more then enough to say that you discard as a “rumour” the fact that chest girth range of Ngorongoro Crater lions given by worldwide acknowledged zoologist Dr Packer is 1270-1340 mm presumably referring to the adult male class. The range has been provided in a private e-mail and not in a peer-reviewed scientific document (therefore caution should be taken to assimilate this info) and is believed to refer to a limited number of individuals. From this range it is possible to understand that the (unknown) chest girth average is considerably higher then any chest girth average provided by Smuts et al. (1980) for different lion populations to which we can all refer as an accurate guideline for lions, even if this average is just fractionally above 1270 mm (it must be and I statistically estimated it a value above or around the range median in a sample of reasonable size). Because of the high correlation between chest girth and body mass statistics suggests that there is very little doubt that the average body mass of Ngorongoro Crater male lions is higher then that of any other lion population. How much it is not known, but reasonably accurate body mass estimate from chest girth suggests within the known limitations of regression equation predictions that the average should be higher then 200 kg. The estimate provided by Brown, Packer et al. (1991) based on the real average chest girth is 212 kg and it has been obtained by using an equation given to them by U. S. Seal reported in the paper with an unidentified typing mistake. There is much more to follow of course. WaveRiders 
I can't pretend to understand half of the stuff Peter and WaveRiders posted, but I do have a question for WaveRiders:
If 212 kg were to be accepted as the estimated average weight of male lions in the crater... and if SOME of the male lions in the crater weigh 200 kg (a very large wild lion when considering documented weights throughout the populations of Africa)... then are you saying, SOME of the male lions in the crater weigh 224 kg or heavier?
PETER
1B) Ngorongoro Crater lions (follows from my previous post) You stated “Regarding Ngorogoro lions. In spite of many decades of research in many regions in Africa and in spite of countless tables with weights, only one Ngorogoro male was actually weighed. It was a young adult, who scaled 146 kg. Very different from the computed average for young adults in the page above (206 kg.). A disappointing result, but there you have it.” I am sorry you have been disappointed for that male lion, but I suspect you will be more for what it will follow. I do apologyze for it Peter, sincerely, as I am totally confident we could become very good friend as in first place we share a common interest. Please do not forget it as it is worth a lot. I hope you will not get it too bad and will accept you have not managed this info to the acceptable high enough standard you normally adopt. I highlight such a mistake only because it is very much macroscopic and because it contains at least two mistakes in one, or a mistake and an intentional (in my opinion) omission if you like. I do make mistake of course on occasion, small ones and others perhaps not that small. I try to make this happen very rarely and it seems I have succeeded so far in life, but it has happened and I also paid a lot for it on some circumstances. Please feel free to let me notice it in this context as I am more then interested to correct myself if I am wrong as I am a man of science in first place. Let’s discus this 146 kg young adult male lion. I recently investigated and noticed GuateGojira included in his 2014 table body size and weight sample of adult male lions from East Africa two individuals from Ngorongoro CA. One individual was captured in October 2012 in the Ndutu area of Ngorongoro CA. His age is not clear but it appears to have reached physical and sexual maturity not earlier then late 2011 when was observed joining his old father as a pride male and sire cubs born in early 2012. By October 2012 he should have been an animal likely at least 3,5-4 years old and perhaps 4,5-5 years old, therefore definitely considerable adult. The weight of the animal has been recorded at 146 kg. Fine, how many adult male lions of 140-150 kg we have included in our weight sample? Quite a number, I do no discard none of them as for me it represent about the minimum weight of an adult male lion 4 years old and older in a random and homogeneous sample with sounded statistical foundations representing the population status at any given time (I call the concept as average biomass unit). This concept however should be applied to any other animal (and I do) including Amur tigers and Bengal tigers (some people in this board including you does not do it). For this light individual we have some information about his health status other then his age (I have such info for many other light animals as well). When he was found he resulted to have been seriously injured for quite a long time as his wounds had already become infected by the time he was noticed and narcotized. The condition of this animal showed a large gash present in his stomach caused by a spear which had cut all the way through his back piercing the other side of his body as well as several puncture wounds on his hind legs caused by other predators. The second individual of GuateGojira table is an adult male lion from the Ndutu area of Ngorongoro CA estimated 5 years old captured and weighed in 2013 by Ingela Jansson, a field biologist of the Serengeti Lion Project. The animal hit a non-perfect scale at around 235 kg (stomach contents included). Jansson noticed he was one of the largest lion he has ever seen and that from his belly size he appeared by her judgment fully gorged. Concerning the 235 kg individual, in an AVA thread GuateGojira stated “So this is the second Ngorongoro male lion whose weight is available in literature (the other was a young male of 146 kg, if I remember correctly).” Now, why you are guilty of 2 big mistakes, or a big omission and a big mistake if you like, the latter that you share with GuateGojira and other people if you like? It is for the following reasons:
FACT The two male lions from Ngorongoro CA aforementioned above have sometimes been labelled as Ngorongoro Crater lions in some forum of the web including AVA. This assignation is evidently wrong and must be discarded. Lions of Ngorongoro CA are not to be considered Ngorongoro Crater lions unless they permanently live (and possibly were born and have grown) in the Ngorongoro Crater. Should these conditions not be satisfied they are to be considered as Serengeti lions of the Plains. Of course GuateGojira, you and somebody else are not too guilty because you did not know these geographical details. I have to say that if one has not been there in person or did not bother too much to get information about the area, the probabilities that he can get confused by the words “Ngorongoro Conservation Area” and “Ngorongoro Crater” are high. I have been lucky enough to have been in Africa and in the African bush many times even for relatively prolonged periods of time as an independent wildlife observer. I have been in many places up to a good part of southern Africa. The Serengeti and the Okavango in my opinion are two of the really most incredible localities of the world. It is very expensive to go there, but it is worth a lot. If you have the opportunity go there and you will never regret it. There is much more to follow of course. WaveRiders
Siegfried
The 212 kg figure is an educated estimate, but just an estimate. Because it refers to an average weight of a sample it has more validity then if it would refer to any particular individual. Assuming it were correct, in the sample of N=6 individuals averaging 212 kg I would definitely expect a weight range of 200-225 kg as a minimum, more likely 195-230 kg as I conservatively predicted (actual prediction 195-243 kg likely optimistic for 6 individuals only). I just remind that the sample of N=7 adult male tigers from Chitawan NP average 235 kg kg with a range of 200-261 kg For the benefit of everybody the above on the 212 kg estimate is NOT a fact but a comment on an educated estimate suggested by a peer-reviewed scientific paper. WaveRiders 
@Pockets - it's a well known fact both lion and tiger subspecies that dwell in prey rich regions are generally larger than their counterparts in prey challenged regions. Common sense.
(02-13-2015, 04:13 AM)'Pckts' Wrote:(02-13-2015, 04:06 AM)'chaos' Wrote: Not much of a mystery folks. Well fed lions grow bigger than less fed lions. That simple. I would think that longer periods of prey scarcity would have some type of an adverse effect on conditioning. Doesn't it make sense that a cat that eats its fill every 3 days MIGHT be in better condition (weigh more, but not to the level of obesity) than one that eats its fill every 7 days?
Besides the fact the crater has its own unique
eco-system, possibly making their larger size an environmental dynamic. Serengeti lions are subject to a different Eco-system, one that includes drought and migration. Two important elements the crater dont have. (maybe drought?) This is just an opinion, but a solid one.  (02-13-2015, 06:54 PM)'chaos' Wrote: @Pockets - it's a well known fact both lion and tiger subspecies that dwell in prey rich regions are generally larger than their counterparts in prey challenged regions. Common sense. You like to use the term "common sense" but you don't provide evidence on whether Crater is has more or less prey density or Compare other Tigers from areas with alleged different prey density. Just so you know, the serengeti has 1000s of more animals than the crater as well as tons more different species available than the crater. Giraffes, Impala, herda beast etc. All don't exist in the crater, even warthog was only seen recently. And many other herbivores, as well. What the crater does have is a constant # of animals throughout the year, meaning, no migratory animals. But that just means they have the same animals year round, not more #'s aka Prey Density. The serengeti is one of the most prey abundant places around and the Prime territory holding prides will have access to all kinds of prey year round and a high variety. And since there is only one verified weight of 146kg for a Male Lion (injured yes) but still not skinny by any means, it proves that the male at least is not the 212kg average claimed. Since all other averages are based off a faulty chest size and not weights they are far from verified. You certainly would not allow the weight of 272kg+ to be allowed if they were simply estimated off body length or chest size, would you? @Waverider In regards to Kaziranga tigers, you are right they have not been measured. But Assam Tigers have a few individuals who have been, and according to them, they have the largest skulls on average, and their body weight was in the 220kg range I believe. I don't know about what region in assam they were from, but Kaziranga is in assam. Lets also look at Eye Witness accounts saying that they are the largest tigers they have ever seen. Then lastly, prey density, Kaziranga is the Only place in India with Rhino, Elephant, Water Buffalo and all the other species of prey in India for a tiger. It also has the highest Tiger Density as well, so using those proven facts, the only way a Tiger density that high is sustained, is plenty of prey, the habitat is lush, deep grass and tough treking. A animal must swim miles, hunt through elephant grass and deep wet marsh lands to make kills. All would contribute to growth in muscles and overall weight. Lets compare these factors to the Crater, No higher prey density than else where, terrain is similar to any where else, lion density is very low there, (growing recently) but still not higher than other areas, Coalitions are much more individuals meaning more mouth's to feed, lions as recently as 30 years ago came from the Serengeti. So its not like Kaziranga where they have had 100s of years of uninterrupted evolutionary time, they have only recently begun to live there again in substantial #s and its not like they could have adapted specific morphological traits in that time frame. So, by no means is 212kg an unheard of # for wild lions, but it certainly is not backed by evidence that those weights are the average for male lions in the crater. I have also seen no eye witness accounts saying they are any larger than any other Lions from elsewhere maybe somebody here would like to ask a few lion experts on FB? "The 212 kg figure is an educated estimate, but just an estimate. Because it refers to an average weight of a sample it has more validity then if it would refer to any particular individual. Assuming it were correct, in the sample of N=6 individuals averaging 212 kg I would definitely expect a weight range of 200-225 kg as a minimum, more likely 195-230 kg as I conservatively predicted (actual prediction 195-243 kg likely optimistic for 6 individuals only). I just remind that the sample of N=7 adult male tigers from Chitawan NP average 235 kg kg with a range of 200-261 kg" Also the real average of Chitwan would be 200kg-272kg+ but thats a different discussion.  (02-13-2015, 04:06 AM)'chaos' Wrote: Not much of a mystery folks. Well fed lions grow bigger than less fed lions. That simple. ...too simple. Lions are social and rely on numbers. More food should result in more lions (ofc in bigger size as well...but only to some extent). Thats why size differences between various lion populations are limited. ...and as far as I know its rather the size of prey (and not the amout of prey...that much) what increases the size of lions.  (02-13-2015, 05:50 PM)'WaveRiders' Wrote: PETER Excellent defence, but there was no need as it wasn't about about Ngorogoro lions, Kazirangha tigers, mischief, facts, forums and science. From your posts, I gathered these items would evoke a response. I was after something else and freely admit the attempt to get there was both indirect as well as a bit wily. I hope you will accept my sincere apologies. When reading your posts, I got interested in a few things. Same for the other mods. We could have decided for a direct approach and ask a few questions. You have to admit some mods did. You also have to admit you more or less kept them in the dark. For this reason, I decided for another approach. The questions we had, to be sure, were not about your posts and the items discussed. Your posts are interesting, informing and, in a good way, provocative. The items selected also were interesting. It was, mostly speaking for myself, about your background, motive, intention and, of course, the data. The first quote above was selected, because I agree. We share a common interest and also seem to be interested in a few things often disregarded by biologists. Furthermore, we are complementary in that you concentrate on different animals and opt for a slightly different, but equally productive, approach regarding questions and answers. A promising prospect for a forum, I'd say. The second quote was selected because it confirmed a hunch. In order to be able to write the posts we saw, commitment is a condition. Although you often refer to articles and books when data are discussed, I guessed there was something more deeply ingrained. I propose to forget about the issues raised in my post for the reasons mentioned. I also propose to continue on lions. It would, however, be much appreciated if you could include some of your data when we reach the level of details. I know it won't be easy to disclose things you worked for and treasure, but you have to agree it would contribute to the quality of communication. As for the questions you raised on Indian and Nepal tigers, measurements, tools and methods used, reliability and researchers involved. I will do a few posts in the tiger thread shortly. Your contributions will be appreciated, Peter.
Peter
I very much appreciated your post and I am more then happy to forget the issues you raised. Concerning data, I cannot and do not definitely disclose unpublished data that have been given to me by the first or a second hand source. Unpublished proprietary data have a value and I totally respect it. I tend to apply the same principle to my own data regardless if they have served, will serve or may serve a purpose or not. I am sure you can understand it. My aim to participate and contribute in a forum is to post conclusions and to argue conclusions of other people. If somebody else’s conclusions do not match mine and I feel he may have some good reasons, I do not really need his sources and data. I look mine, I may look for more and better ones, I revised and go through all my methodologies and considerations and I try to understand if it is me who is not fully correct if not even substantially wrong. If considerations, conclusions and suggestions by somebody else have been useful to me I am grateful to him, if mine have been useful to somebody else and contributed to open his mind I am glad and gratified. The bad side of all of that is the unnecessary wall that sometimes you have to face, the misinterpretation, the twist of statements and the fact that you write something that can be easily undisputably checked and this is not done, and after a few posts you find again the same wrong initial statement.  (02-12-2015, 07:09 PM)'WaveRiders' Wrote: GuateGojiraWords and words and more words. WHERE is the EVIDENCE????? Every time that I show your mistakes, you only reply running from the principal point. The formula is NOT from Packer, and was not provided TO Packer also. He directly say that, this is the point, period. Of course I know how a document, with many authors, is made. I have published documents, professionals and amateur ones, from me and with others, do you remember? However, you say that you have "data", but again you fail to show it. I have nothing to hide and I gladly show all what I have, that is the difference between you and me. By the way, you dismissed the emails from Dr Sunquist just because it showed that you are wrong, so, do you think that this actions make you more reliable??? No one is saying ANYTHING about 300 kg tiger from pictures, why you say that here??? It don't have any sense to post that. Finally, no one is "worried" about 212 kg lions, the point is IF that figure is true or false, and the evidence suggest that is is incorrect, so is false. About your final questions, you have already answered, so there is no point to repeat it. (02-14-2015, 12:51 AM)'Amnon242' Wrote: Young Tom. 146 kg crater lion. Young Tom is not a crater lion. He's actually from the Ngoragora conservation area. |
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