Reintroduction of Wolves and Lynx into Britain

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"Using data gathered from radio-tracked lynx on how they use and move across the landscapes of Switzerland — a mountainous country with broadly similar patterns of woodland cover and networks of roads and railways — and applying it to Scotland, identifies two potential lynx habitat networks103. The smaller of the two stretches across southern Scotland and the English border to include Kielder Forest. It includes over 6000 km2 of suitable habitat that is connected by potential movement corridors.

The larger of the two networks, amounting to over 15,000 km2 extends across much of northern Scotland, from the east coast to the west. The two networks are separated by the Central Belt, a relatively open, densely populated landscape criss-crossed by busy roads and railway lines, which lies between and around the two largest cities of Glasgow and Edinburgh. It is unlikely that lynx would move across this landscape sufficiently for the two networks to be well connected. However, with woodland cover increasing in the Central Belt, this could change in the future. 

By examining the relationship between lynx and prey densities across Europe, it’s possible to predict potential lynx densities using the abundance of deer in woodland across the two Scottish habitat networks. The smaller habitat network, with its relatively lower deer densities, could support an average density of 0.83 lynx/100km2.

The larger network, on the other hand, supports higher deer densities and this is reflected in a potential average lynx density of 2.63 lynx/100km2. When we apply these densities to the amount of lynx habitat, it gives potential lynx populations of around 50 in the south of Scotland, and 400 in the north. When it has reached its capacity, the southern population would still be quite small and, in isolation, would run a relatively high risk of extinction. On the other hand, the northern population would be very unlikely to go extinct once it has reached its full potential. The minimum population size suggested for long-term viability of Eurasian lynx has been estimated at around 200, and so the northern population would sit comfortably above this figure105. In fact, at current population estimates, this northern Scottish population would be the fifth largest in Europe. The woodland habitat data used for these calculations dates from 2002, and with an average of 6000 ha or so of new woodland created each year since then, the potential for lynx in Scotland will also have steadily increased and seems very likely to continue to do so. " Reply