There is a world somewhere between reality and fiction. Although ignored by many, it is very real and so are those living in it. This forum is about the natural world. Here, wild animals will be heard and respected. The forum offers a glimpse into an unknown world as well as a room with a view on the present and the future. Anyone able to speak on behalf of those living in the emerald forest and the deep blue sea is invited to join.
(04-15-2016, 08:09 AM)Shardul Wrote: I am not being an optimist at all. An overall higher percentage of sub adults would mean the conditions are excellent, which is far from true. Common problem in India is when a reserve reaches it's carrying capacity of tigers, the sub adults disperse out, lose protection and get killed by humans. The 'source' population remains the same, the extra animals dispersing out have no 'Sink Areas' that can absorb them. Take Ranthambhore for eg, even with the best protection and prey available, it cannot carry 100 tigers. It currently has about 35 and that will remain stable more or less. The resident tigers will keep breeding and the dispersing animals will keep dying if they do not find a suitable habitat outside ranthambhore. Other areas with lesser protection have animals being killed around and some times inside the reserves. Tigers are prolific breeders. Give them enough prey and protection and their population will rebound in no time.
If we are debating the number of adult tigers in India ( not actual breeding adults ) I would even accept a higher number in the range of 1500-1600 ( out of 2200 ), now as you know and as tiger scientists continuously state tigresses do not breed and raise cubs when and where the conditions are poor, poor prey base, high human encroachment, excess of infanticidal males..etc.
Karanth estimates that over half of the tiger population in India lives in marginal,poor,fragmented, unprotected habitat, so practically half of the adult tigresses may chose not to raise cubs and will not be considered breeding adults ( hence an estimate of below 1000 ), on the other hand we all agree on the resilience and ability to recover of tigers , they are prolific breeders and will quickly maximize their potential ( possibly close to 2000 breeding adults) if we provide them all with enough protection, prey, and space.
Sadly this is not the situation for over half of the tigers in India.
And you are absolutely right with the absence of dispersal channels that will take sub-adults into establishing territories they will be pushed closer to human habitat and inevitable conflict and death.
We can draw hope with some good work connecting some tiger habitat ( naturally or through man-made efforts) in the Terai landscape, the Sunderban, and the Western Ghats but my main concern is the tigers of dry forest in central India, the potential for their sub-adults to become residents is depressingly low.
In case of Indian tigers, I see a lot of assumptions being made. Outside of a few protected areas, no proper research has been done on the vast majority of it's occupied habitat. The recent census established presence of tigers in hitherto unknown areas, where they were not expected to be. A few months back, a tigress with 3 cubs was found near bhopal city. The cubs were not small, which means she was living there for quit some time. That area is not even a sanctuary, it's just a reserve forest, an area you might call degraded or unsuitable. We have similar examples in other areas. And we cannot assume this to be rare since it came into news only because it happened on the outskirts of a major city.
The bulk (2/3rd) of India's tigers are concentrated into protected areas withing a few key landscapes. Only a third reside outside protected areas. You really do need to read up the census report I provided you earlier.
While we are in the process of providing low low low figures, why stop at 900? Let's suppose 1/3rd of the <1500 adults are old, another 1/3 are transient. So that would peg the number of adults who are capable of breeding at <500. And since more than half of them are not breeding, that would put the number of breeding adults at <250, closer to 200 then. Which puts the Indian tiger in the IUCN red list. This would do wonders for creating "awareness", not that it's going to stop poachers, but hey, who cares as long as we are all aware.
