Reintroduction of Wolves and Lynx into Britain

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Lynx 'would spread across Highlands within a century' if reintroduced to Scotland

Reintroducing wild lynx into Scotland would result in the "top end predators" spreading across the entire Highlands within a century, according to a study.
The Stirling University study suggests three sites would be suitable for the animal - the Scottish part of Kielder Forest in the Borders, Aberdeenshire and the Kintyre Peninsula. 
It found the Kintyre Peninsula was the most suitable, with the population spreading across the Highlands in the 100 years following release.
But it said the Central Belt "would act as a barrier to colonisation" between the Highlands and Southern Uplands, providing evidence for two distinct habitat networks".

Lynx are thought to have become extinct in the UK during the medieval period, around 1,300 years ago. The carnivore consumes about one or two kg of meat every day.
The study says that "in recent years, its potential reintroduction has been widely debated". Conservationists claim its re-introduction as "top predator" could "help restore the health of Scotlands natural ecosystems".
But Fergus Ewing, the SNP's Rural Economy Minister, told farmers last year that wolves, bears or lynx would be reintroduced "over my dead body."
Tom Ovenden, a PhD researcher who led the study, said further research was needed to assess "other important factors" such as public attitudes.

Using current land cover data, Mr Ovenden conducted an initial study to establish the current location and extent of suitable forest habitat for lynx in Scotland, updating historic work. 
Further research to identify the demographic and dispersal characteristics of the lynx elsewhere in Europe, provided the model with the necessary parameters.
The team then used the model to assess how the lynx would establish a population, spread, and colonise new habitat, from each potential reintroduction site over a period of 100 years.

Mr Ovenden said: "Reintroducing large carnivores is often complicated and expensive, meaning that getting things right first time is extremely important.
"This initial research is encouraging and suggests that Scotland is indeed ecologically suitable for the reintroduction of Eurasian lynx, but this suitability is highly dependent on where reintroduction takes place and more modelling work is required."
He said the project had provided a "solid foundation" bur further research is required.
Jo Pike, public Affairs director at the Scottish Wildlife Trust, said: "Any future reintroduction would have to be carefully planned, widely consulted on, and rigorously assessed against national and international guidelines. 
"This research is a useful contribution to the evidence base that needs to be developed over the coming years." 

The Kintyre Peninsula was also recently identified by the Lynx UK Trust as one of three sites in Scotland for intensive consultations on a trial reintroduction of the species.
Other locations described by the Trust as "suitable lynx habitat" were Queen Elizabeth Forest Park region, 30 miles north of Glasgow, and Glen Feshie, next to the Cairngorms National Park.
However, NFU Scotland and the Scottish Crofting Federation have vigorously opposed the move, warning it would lead to "significant predation of ewes and lambs."

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"Globally, large carnivores have been heavily affected by habitat loss, fragmentation and persecution, sometimes resulting in local extinctions. With increasing recognition of top-down trophic cascades and complex predator-prey dynamics, reintroductions are of growing interest for restoration of ecosystem functioning. Many reintroductions have however failed, in part due to poor planning and inability to model complex eco-evolutionary processes to give reliable predictions. Using the case study of Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), a large predator being considered for reintroduction to Scotland, we demonstrate how an individual-based model that integrates demography with three distinct phases of dispersal (emigration, transfer and settlement) can be used to explore the relative suitability of three geographically-distant potential reintroduction sites, multi-site reintroductions and two founding population sizes. For a single-site reintroduction of 10 lynx, our simulation results show a clear hierarchy of suitability across all metrics. Reintroduction in the Kintyre Peninsula (west coast) consistently performed best, with a probability of population persistence at year 100 of 83%, and the Scottish component of Kielder Forest (southern Scotland) worst, with only a 21% chance of population persistence to year 100. Simultaneous two-site reintroduction in the Kintyre Peninsula and in Aberdeenshire (near the east coast) of 32 lynx gave a 96% persistence at 100 years. Our model was highly sensitive to survival, particularly of adults, highlighting this parameter's importance for reintroduction success. The results strongly indicate the potential viability of Eurasian lynx reintroduction to Scotland given the current cover of suitable woodland habitat. More generally, our work demonstrates how emerging modelling approaches incorporating increased realism in representing species' demography, ecology and dispersal can have high value for quick, inexpensive assessment of likely reintroduction success and for selection between alternative strategies"

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