Bigcats News

[Shardul]

@Dr Panthera

Well, recently the number of tigers in ranthambhore was put at 30 adults and 15 subadults and cubs. So that fits in right at about 60-65% for adults, which is the same as that for what you mentioned for malaysia. A had read about a similar ratio for kanha. Let me explain why I thought the ratio you mentioned was very low.

Let's say a forest has 10 males and 10 females, all breeding adults. So to get a ratio of 60% cubs, it would mean all 10 females should be having a litter at exactly the same time, which is not really possible.(20 adults + 30 cubs @3cubs/female) Some females give  a litter every 3 years or so, some take even more than that.

But you're right that even with 1200-1500 adults, the future is far from secure. I also agree with you that the 2014 census was misleading, but for different reasons:

The 2014 census simply sampled more area, than the previous 2011 census. So there was not an increase in tiger population as was claimed, simply more tigers were known this time. Similar to the previous years when they changed the methodology from pugmarks to the more modern methodology. The number of tigers were reported to decrease, when in reality only the numbers had been overestimated earlier.

But the good news in the latest census was the confirmed presence of tigers in unprotected areas. It said that almost a third of india's tigers were outside the tiger reserves, which proves that tigers are dispering out since their numbers are increasing. Bad news being that current reserves are reaching their carrying capacity and more area needs to be brought under the PA network urgently.

The whole reason there is so much confusion and doubt over tiger numbers is because of the closed working nature of the Indian govt. They are the only ones with an authority to go inside the tiger's forests. Even genuine researchers have a hard time getting permits from the government. Tourists get to see only 10-20% area of the parks that are opened to tourism. Most of the area is out of bound for the common man. So unless another agency goes in and surveys all of the 370,000 km2 area and comes up with their own number, we have no other option but to believe the official figures, since they don't appear to be exaggerated anyway.

Coming to the "experts", I am basing my statement on the number of documentaries I've watched over the years, and I've watched a lot. I have seen documentaries shot in the 80s and 90s and also the more recent ones. The themes of those dealing with conservation were all similar; They would all feature some "Tiger Expert" or "Big Cat Expert" making proclaimations about the number of tigers in the world and how they were going to go extinct very soon. One was based on Huai Khaeng another was based on Sumatra and they all had some expert claiming how this place or some other was going to be the future for the world's tigers. There a very recent one on Bhutan where tigers were recorded at never before seen altitudes. As usual, they had to come to India to get some actual tiger footage. The "expert" in this case came to bandhavgarh and talked about how tigers were being fored to live in only 100 km2 area (he got the area absolutely wrong, it is more than 10 times that) and how only 1 tiger should live in that much area, which is bollocks since the tala zone (of Bandhavgarh) he was talking about has a very high prey density and hence supports more than 20 big cats.

You need to understand that channels like NGC and Discovery are the primary sources of information on wildlife and nature for the general public. For them, Dave Salmoni is as much of an expert as George Schaller. And the misinformation campaign that these people run makes me angry.

Regarding Dr karanth underestimating the sundarban tiger population, I think that proves my point. Even experienced researchers can get it wrong if they haven't actually studied the area for a good amount of time. And therein lies the problem. Only governments have the rights and resources over the world's wilderness. Common people cannot do anything unless the government is able and willing. Reply